Back in January, I published my predictions for regional Victorian technology in 2025. Now, with the year nearly complete, it’s time for honest assessment.

Let’s see how I’m tracking.

Prediction 1: AI Tools Become Standard Business Software

What I said: AI would move from interesting addition to embedded feature in standard business software.

What happened: Accurate. Microsoft Copilot, Google’s AI features, and AI enhancements in accounting software, CRMs, and other business tools have become normal.

Regional businesses I talk to are using AI features without thinking of them as “AI”—they’re just features in software they already use. Email draft suggestions, automatic categorisation, smart recommendations.

Verdict: Correct. This happened faster than expected.

Prediction 2: NBN Fibre Upgrades Accelerate

What I said: Significant FTTP rollout across regional Victoria, particularly larger centres.

What happened: Mixed. Upgrades did continue, and more addresses can access fibre. But “accelerate” was optimistic—the pace remained steady rather than speeding up.

Some regional businesses got upgraded and are genuinely benefiting. Others remain waiting. The gap between well-connected and poorly-connected addresses persists.

Verdict: Partially correct. Progress yes, acceleration no.

Prediction 3: Starlink Becomes the Rural Standard

What I said: For properties outside NBN fibre zones, Starlink would become the default choice.

What happened: Accurate. Starlink is now standard recommendation for rural properties with poor NBN options.

Reliability has improved further. Pricing stabilised. The business model proven. I know few rural properties that have tried and abandoned Starlink.

Verdict: Correct.

Prediction 4: E-commerce Matures Beyond Just Selling

What I said: Focus would shift from launching online stores to sophistication—customer experience, fulfilment, marketing.

What happened: Accurate for established e-commerce businesses. Those who’ve been selling online for years are indeed focusing on optimisation rather than expansion.

But many regional businesses still haven’t launched online selling at all, so the “maturation” is selective.

Verdict: Correct for the leading businesses. Others still catching up.

Prediction 5: Regional Tech Employment Continues Growing

What I said: More companies hiring regionally, more remote workers choosing regional Victoria.

What happened: Accurate. The trend established during COVID has continued without reversal. Regional tech employment is robust.

Multiple new arrivals to regional centres working remote tech jobs. Local businesses reporting more tech hiring than previous years.

Verdict: Correct.

Prediction 6: Cybersecurity Incidents Increase

What I said: Regional businesses would face more cyber attacks.

What happened: Unfortunately accurate. I’ve tracked more incidents in my networks than previous years. Invoice fraud, ransomware, account compromises—all increasing.

The silver lining: awareness has also increased. More businesses taking security seriously before incidents force them.

Verdict: Correct, unfortunately.

Prediction 7: Practical AI for Agriculture Expands

What I said: Ag-tech tools would become more affordable and practical for mid-sized operations.

What happened: Partially accurate. Technology has improved and adoption has increased, but “affordable” remains relative.

The tools exist and work. Adoption is growing. But we’re not yet at mass adoption for mid-sized farms. Early majority rather than mainstream.

Verdict: Trending correctly, slower than predicted.

Prediction 8: Government Digital Services Improve

What I said: Continued progress in government digital services—less paperwork, more online options.

What happened: Incremental improvement. Some services genuinely better. Others remain frustrating. Government moves slowly but direction is positive.

Verdict: Partially correct. Improvement yes, dramatic improvement no.

What I Didn’t Predict

Some developments I should have anticipated:

AI-powered voice and video tools emerged faster than expected. Real-time translation, voice cloning, video generation—these moved from experimental to practical.

Consolidation in regional tech services continued. Smaller IT providers being acquired by larger ones. Market dynamics shifting.

Training and skills programs expanded significantly. Government, private, and academic options for tech skills training all increased.

Overall Assessment

Looking at my predictions overall:

• 3 clearly correct
• 3 partially correct
• 2 trending correctly but slower than predicted

Not bad, but not prescient either. The themes were right; the pace varied.

What This Tells Us

The directions of technology change are predictable—AI integration, connectivity improvement, e-commerce maturation. These trends are driven by underlying forces that don’t reverse quickly.

What’s harder to predict is timing. “This will happen” is easier than “this will happen in 2025.”

For practical planning purposes: trust the direction, be flexible on timing.

Looking to 2026

I’ll publish detailed 2026 predictions in January. But the broad themes will likely be:

• AI agents becoming practical
• Connectivity gaps continuing to close
• Regional tech employment stabilising at higher levels
• Cybersecurity remaining critical
• Skills shortages persisting

Stay tuned for the full analysis.

For now, I’m reasonably happy with my 2025 predictions. The story of regional tech this year has been steady progress across multiple fronts—exactly what I expected, if not always at the pace I hoped.