Another year ends, another set of predictions begins. Rather than chasing global trends, I’m focusing on what I expect to actually matter for regional Victorian businesses in 2026.

These predictions are based on current trajectories, conversations with local businesses, and educated guesses about where things are heading.

Prediction 1: AI Agents Become Practical

2025 embedded AI into existing software. 2026 will see AI agents—systems that can take actions, not just provide information.

What this means:

AI that books appointments, handles basic customer service interactions, manages routine workflows. Not autonomous decision-making for complex matters, but handling routine tasks independently.

For regional businesses:

Start with low-stakes automation. Let AI handle appointment scheduling or FAQ responses. Learn what works before trusting it with anything critical.

Confidence level: High that the technology arrives. Medium that adoption happens quickly.

Prediction 2: NBN Fibre Upgrades Complete in Most Regional Centres

NBN Co’s FTTP upgrade program should reach most addresses in larger regional centres by end of 2026.

What this means:

Businesses in Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, and similar centres should have fibre access available. Rural and smaller town addresses continue depending on fixed wireless, satellite, or Starlink.

For regional businesses:

If you’re eligible for upgrade, take it. The speed and reliability improvements are worth the effort of installation.

Confidence level: Medium-high. The commitment exists; execution timing may vary.

Prediction 3: Starlink Business Tier Gains Traction

Starlink’s business-tier service, with priority bandwidth and static IPs, will become more popular among rural businesses.

What this means:

Rural businesses needing reliable connectivity for critical operations will upgrade from standard Starlink. Higher cost ($350-500/month) justified by business-grade reliability.

For regional businesses:

If you’re running business operations on Starlink and reliability matters, investigate business tier as pricing and availability evolve.

Confidence level: High. The product exists and fills a genuine gap.

Prediction 4: E-commerce Consolidation

Smaller regional e-commerce operations will struggle against larger competitors. Differentiation becomes essential.

What this means:

Generic online stores selling commodity products will find margins squeezed. Success requires either extreme efficiency or genuine differentiation—unique products, exceptional service, or loyal communities.

For regional businesses:

Don’t compete on price against Amazon. Compete on what regional businesses do well—local knowledge, personal service, unique offerings, authentic stories.

Confidence level: High. This is already happening and will accelerate.

Prediction 5: Remote Work Stabilises at Current Levels

No significant increase or decrease in remote work arrangements. The new normal has arrived.

What this means:

Companies comfortable with remote workers will continue hiring regionally. Those that returned to office-centric models won’t change back.

For regional workers:

Remote opportunities remain abundant, but competition is national/global. Skills and reliability matter more than location.

Confidence level: High. The experiment is over; this is just how things are.

Prediction 6: Cybersecurity Incidents Remain High

No improvement in the threat landscape. Regional businesses continue facing significant cyber risk.

What this means:

Invoice fraud, ransomware, and account compromises remain common. Criminals continue targeting smaller businesses with weaker defences.

For regional businesses:

Basic protections prevent most attacks. Two-factor authentication, password managers, regular backups, staff training. There’s no excuse not to implement these.

Confidence level: High. Unfortunately confident in this one.

Prediction 7: Skills Shortages Persist

Regional tech skills gaps won’t close in 2026. Demand continues outpacing supply.

What this means:

Businesses struggle to find developers, analysts, and technical specialists. Competition for talent remains intense.

For regional businesses:

Train internally, hire remotely, or accept limitations. Expecting qualified local candidates for specialised roles isn’t realistic.

Confidence level: High. Training programs aren’t producing at sufficient scale.

Prediction 8: Agricultural Technology Adoption Accelerates

Mid-sized farming operations adopt more technology in 2026 as costs decrease and connectivity improves.

What this means:

Satellite monitoring, variable rate technology, and management software become mainstream rather than early-adopter tools.

For farmers:

If you’ve been waiting for technology to mature, 2026 may be the year. Connectivity has improved, tools have simplified, and costs have decreased.

Confidence level: Medium-high. The technology is ready; adoption depends on season economics and commodity prices.

Prediction 9: Regional Tech Communities Formalise

Informal meetups evolve into more structured organisations in some centres.

What this means:

Some regional tech communities will establish formal structures—incorporated associations, regular programming, funded activities. Others remain informal but active.

For regional tech workers:

Engage with your local community. Contribute to building what you wish existed.

Confidence level: Medium. Depends on volunteer energy and funding.

What I’m Not Predicting

Things I’m skeptical about for regional Victoria in 2026:

Significant VR/AR business adoption: Still experimental, still expensive.

Autonomous vehicles affecting business: Still years away from practical regional impact.

Cryptocurrency becoming mainstream: Businesses don’t need this complexity.

Dramatic government digital service improvement: Incremental progress more likely than transformation.

Overall Outlook

2026 will likely be another year of steady progress rather than revolution for regional Victorian technology.

AI capabilities will advance. Connectivity will improve incrementally. E-commerce will mature. Security threats will persist. Skills will remain scarce.

The businesses that thrive will:

• Adopt practical technology that solves real problems
• Take security seriously
• Build skills and capability incrementally
• Engage with tech communities for support and learning

Nothing dramatic. Steady progress. That’s how regional technology advances—one practical improvement at a time.

I’ll revisit these predictions at year’s end. Let’s see how 2026 unfolds.

For regional businesses wanting expert guidance on navigating technology in 2026, team400.ai can help create practical strategies for your specific context.